According to GroupM's "This Year, "Next Year: Global 2020 End-of-Year Forecast Report," the advertising industry will decline by 5.8%. The figures reflect a more positive forecast than that of June's 11.9% decline for 2020, yet still a significant drop from 2019’s 8.7% growth rate. The researcher updated its 2021 outlook for the global advertising market from its June forecast of 8.2% to 12.3% growth, a new baseline from which e-commerce is expected to keep growing alongside performance-based marketing. As such, GroupM has updated its 2021 outlook for the global advertising market from its June forecast of 8.2% to 12.3% growth.
Digital advertising is expected to grow by 8.2% during 2020, excluding U.S. political activity following nearly a decade of double-digit growth, including the last six years, when it was better than 20% worldwide. Digital advertising for media owners like Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc., is estimated to be 61% of advertising in 2021, doubling from 2015's 30.6%. By 2024, a 66% global advertising share is expected.
Television advertising will decline by 15.1% excluding U.S. political advertising, before rebounding to grow 7.8% next year. Digital extensions and related media, including advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming activities will grow 7.8% this year and 23.2% next year. The cinema global sector likely generated less than $3 billion during 2019 and likely fell more than 75% during 2020 given the absence of major studio releases in most markets around the world.
The eight largest markets inlcude the U.S., China, Japan, the U.K., Germany, France, South Korea, and Canada, seven of which are projected to decline by 2% and beyond in 2020. The exception is China where a growth rate of 6.2% is expected. All countries will demonstrate growth in 2021: 11.8% in the U.S., 15.6% in China, 12% in Japan, 12.4% in the U.K., 4.6% in Germany, 7.2% in France, 1.6% in South Korea and 15.1% in Canada.
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