The rate of TV commissioning in the United States dropped significantly in the second half of last year, and continues to remain low in 2023, according to the latest report from Ampere Analysis. This downturn is most profound for scripted content, with scripted TV commissions in the last three quarters down by 24% year-on-year – with overall volumes even lower than during the pandemic. However, Ampere believes that the resulting content deficit has created opportunities for those in a position to invest.
● AUDIENCES WILL FEEL EFFECTS OF A CONTENT DEFICIT LATER THIS YEAR
To-date, the time lag between commission and release times means that although commissions have been lower, audiences have yet to see the full effect on TV schedules. But low commissioning now will create a future content deficit, with the slowdown likely to start to bite in the third quarter of 2023 and beyond.
Ampere Analysis outlines two possible scenarios. In the first, if commissioning rates recover soon, audiences will see between 5% and 7% fewer scripted releases each quarter between now and the second quarter of 2024, when the effects will ease. In the second scenario, if commissioning continues at current levels, audiences will start to feel a much greater impact towards the end of this year, with 16% fewer releases expected in Q4 2023, and 20% fewer from Q2 2024 onwards.
● AMAZON, THE EXCEPTION TO THE TREND
Fred Black, Research Manager at Ampere Analysis, explained: “Scripted commissions at flagship SVOD services are definitely feeling the impact of budget cuts – and the studios are not only cutting back at their streaming platforms, with pay TV networks like TBS, FX, OWN, Freeform, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, BET and AMC all reducing scripted commissions by over 50% when comparing the past nine months with the previous period. There is one big exception, however, which is Amazon. The company is capitalizing on cutbacks made by rivals by increasing commissions of comedy and sci-fi / fantasy shows. Investing in scripted commissions now can pay off doubly for those willing to gamble, as the extra commissions will hit the market just as the output of original content from rivals drops to its lowest levels early next year.”
● IN UNSCRIPTED, AVOD GROWS AS SVOD COMMISSIONS FALL
Although the decline of unscripted commissions was severe across SVOD and pay TV, SVOD services have been the biggest loser, with commissions down 33% over the last nine months versus the same period in the previous year, with 151 fewer titles commissioned. On the other hand, AVOD and FAST commissioners have provided a bright spot in the gloom with 83 unscripted commissions over the period, 6% of all unscripted activity in the United States in that time.
“While the commissioning cutbacks in unscripted content at the dominant pay TV and SVOD platforms have been severe, there is a sense of balance being restored after a significant pandemic peak. Covid-19 saw unscripted commissions soar out of necessity due to production complications, and then continue at a high level due to a surprisingly enthusiastic audience. What we are seeing now is a course correction. Unscripted commissions in the United States were down 16% over the last three quarters compared to the previous year, but compare it to the same period in 2019 and early 2020, and the drop is only 1%. There is also optimism in the growing number of commissions from AVOD and FAST platforms, showing that while some SVOD services may have over-leveraged on unscripted content, there are plenty of nascent players still investing,” Fred Black concluded.
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