23 FEB 2022

Will Netflix’s lead in the Nordics be challenged by Disney and HBO?

According to a survey conducted by Mediavision in the Nordic countries, 73% of the respondents believe that one or several actors could challenge Netflix’s leadership in the market before 2025.

23 FEB 2022

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For the third consecutive year, Mediavision has asked stakeholders in the Nordic media industry to share their view on the future development of the Nordic market. The results of this survey, supplemented with reflections and analysis from the Mediavision team, is presented in Mediavision’s “Industry Outlook 2022”.

One of the main takeaways from this year’s edition regarding video streaming is that the industry expects Netflix’s pole position may be challenged by Disney and HBO. Following multiple years of double digit SVOD growth, Mediavision has identified signs of maturity – but also disruptive forces that may boost growth.

The industry believes that growth will continue in 2022. In fact, a vast majority (63%) of the respondents believe that household spend on SVOD will increase. However, this is a smaller share than when the same question was posed a year ago – back then, close to 90% believed that spend would increase. Conversely, 85% of the respondents believe that SVOD-subscriptions will increase – perhaps an expression of increased stacking and lower average expenditure per sub.

Netflix has had a pole position on the Nordic market ever since it was launched back in 2012, despite significant changes to the competitive SVOD-landscape. However, 73% of the respondents believe that one or several actors could challenge Netflix’s pole position before 2025. Disney+ and HBO Max are considered main contenders. Both services have performed strong (re)launches in the last two years. HBO added +635’ households in the Nordics following the transition from Nordic to Max in October 2021 – which put HBO back in the top three of Nordic SVOD services.

Meanwhile, last week, the already substantial supply of streaming services in the Nordics was expanded even further – as Lionsgate owned Starzplay entered the fray as a standalone subscription service. Part of Starzplay’s content has already been available to Nordic consumers via a partnership with NENT Group’s Viaplay as of December last year. According to Superna Kalle, President of International Networks at Starz, local original productions might be coming to the service going forward.