A new analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence calls 2025 “a pivotal year for the global media landscape” as the industry struggles with declining revenue for local broadcast TV, more ad dollars and sports rights shifting to streaming, profit margins for cable network slumping and cord-cutting hitting 9.5% this year.
Overall, the report said the U.S. broadcast TV and radio station industry will decline 9.3% to $32.83 billion in total advertising revenue in 2025 from $36.19 billion in 2024, primarily since it is a non-election and non-Olympic year. In 2025, a non-political year, S&P estimates total TV station revenue, including retrans, will decline 6.9% to $37.60 billion from $40.40 billion in 2024, although this is $517 million higher than the prior nonpolitical year 2023, with core national spot down 4% and local spot ad revenue ticking up 2%.
In the report, Seth Shafer, senior research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, argues that “2025 could prove to be a pivotal year for the global media landscape as more sports programming and advertising dollars flow towards streaming services. Intense competition could see a rise in mergers and deal-making, especially in the U.S. where media firms are firmly focused on profitability and deregulation could be on the rise.”
The trend of cord-cutting in the U.S. is expected to persist, further pressuring linear TV networks. By 2025, traditional U.S. multichannel households are projected to decline by 9.3% as more consumers abandon cable and satellite TV in favor of digital video and streaming alternatives. This shift continues to reshape the television landscape, forcing both operators and networks to adapt.
Carriage disputes are prompting more creative bundling options as operators resist rate hikes from stations and networks. Declining subscriber numbers are pressuring traditional pay TV margins, leading to cost-cutting measures, such as dropping certain networks and resisting rising carriage fees. Despite these challenges, both network owners and pay TV operators remain motivated to preserve the traditional bundle. This shared interest fosters innovative bundling strategies and mutual concessions aimed at adapting to an evolving market environment.
The domestic box office is steadily recovering in the wake of the 2023 Hollywood strikes. After the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the 2020 box-office year, recovery began with a 98.3% increase in 2021 to $4.33 billion and continued with a 69.2% rise in 2022 to $7.32 billion. By 2023, the box office grew another 25.2% to $9.16 billion, marking its fourth year of recovery in 2024. However, these numbers remain significantly lower than pre-pandemic totals, which exceeded $11 billion annually, highlighting the lingering challenges facing the industry.
In the sports media-rights landscape, broadcasting games has become increasingly expensive, coinciding with a more fragmented audience dispersed across various video platforms. As more sports rights shift to streaming, the industry grapples with balancing rising costs and a splintered viewership, reshaping the dynamics of sports broadcasting.
Looking ahead, the media industry faces a transformative period where adaptability and innovation will be key to survival. The ongoing shift toward streaming, coupled with mounting pressures on traditional revenue streams, underscores the need for new business models and strategic partnerships. As 2025 unfolds, companies that embrace these changes and prioritize both profitability and audience engagement will be better positioned to thrive in a rapidly evolving landscape. This pivotal year will not only test the resilience of established players but also pave the way for a new era in global media.
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