According to one of TrendForce’s most recent reports, China’s Singles’ Day were helped by the steep decline in display panel prices. "With panel prices reaching a very low level, TV brands were able to cut their prices further so as to raise shipments of whole TV sets during the promotional period," a recent press release states. "On the other hand, the major international brands have come into the second half of this year with a high level of inventory as their sales performances were weaker than expected during the first half."
The researcher estimates that global TV shipments in 2H22 will reach 109 million units, reflecting a YoY decline of 2.7% after TV brands modified the panel procurement quantity for 2H22. Global TV shipments this year are reported to sum up to 202 million units, representing a YoY decline of 3.9%. Next year, there is expected to be an ample supply of TVs, and panel prices are expected to remain low. "TrendForce believes the growth momentum of TV shipments will be severely constrained next year. Global TV shipments are currently forecasted to again register a YoY decline for 2023, falling by 1.4% to 199 million units."
Contrasting Results for Year-End Holiday Promotions: TV Sales in China During Singles’ Day Period Fell by Nearly 10% YoY, Whereas Black Friday Period in North America Saw 13% YoY Gain Despite Economic Headwinds. Shipments of 8K TVs Are Projected to Drop for First Time in 2022 by 7.4% YoY, but Growth Will Return Next Year with Unit Figure Rising Above 500,000. Shipments of WOLED TVs Are Projected to Drop by 6.2% YoY for 2022 and Fall Further by 2.7% YoY for 2023. "This year, the TV market has seen a continuous decline in shipments. Fortunately, there has also been a sharp drop in prices of large-sized panels," the report explains. "Furthermore, freight transportation costs have fallen by more than 50%. Thus, TV brands have been able to vigorously promote large-sized products, and the average size of TVs has also risen by 1.4 inches to 56 inches."
TV sales in China have also seen a major impact as a result of the constant Covid-19-related lockdowns in the country. During this second half of the year, TV panel prices saw record decreases, and TV sales in China for the Singles’ Day period declined 10% YoY despite promotional efforts. North American TV sales also took a hit, decreasing by 16.5% YoY for 1H22 "Around that same time, TV brands also reached their limit in terms of inventory accumulation," the report explains. "To reduce the glut, brands conducted inventory check across all sections of their supply chains and made significant revisions to their procurement plans. In recent months, brands have seen a rise in demand."
The report also noted a sense of passivity regarding high-end products. Due to the lack of supporting broadcasting content and high retail prices, most TV brands have not been particularly keen on pushing 8K models. Samsung is dcurrently the leading brand for 8K TVs with a market share almost 70%. Despite its success, general 8K TV shipments will register a YoY decline for the first time in 2022, dropping by 7.4% to just about 400,000 units. The report estimates shipments of 8K TVs to surpass the 500,000 unit mark for 2023, representing a YoY growth of 20%.
"TrendForce’s latest research on panel prices finds that LCD panel prices have plummeted. In fact, the price of a 55-inch UHD LCD was 4.8 times lower than the price of a WOLED (white OLED) O/C panel at the end of 3Q22," the report concludes. "With the price difference between the two panels returning to where it was at the start of 2020, selling WOLED TVs have been quite challenging for brands that do offer this kind of product. Therefore, TrendForce estimates that shipments of WOLED TVs will shrink by 6.2% YoY to 6.29 million units for 2022. Assuming that LG Display does not want to sacrifice profitability, it will maintain a conservative pricing strategy when quoting WOLED panels next year. Given this situation, TrendForce forecasts that WOLED TV shipments will dip again by 2.7% YoY for 2023."