21 NOV 2024

Generative AI is paving the way for a transformative 2025

Deloitte's forecast revealed data centers and electricity generators confront skyrocketing energy use from GenAI, women to reach parity in GenAI usage and deployment of AI agents is on the rise. GenAI tests the limits of smartphones, streamers’ fatigue drives aggregation in the market, and wireless telecom consolidation increasing.

21 NOV 2024

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Deloitte Global released its “Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) 2025 Predictions” report, forecasting a pivotal gap year for Generative AI (GenAI) and the TMT sector—spanning from technical challenges for the industry to societal imperatives. By addressing challenges in infrastructure, gender equity, energy consumption, trust, and capabilities, the industry could be poised for a significant leap forward and is well positioned to determine the future of Al’s legacy.

"We are standing on the brink of a new era in human invention and the choices we make today around the development and use of artificial intelligence will shape the future,” commented Deloitte Global TMT Industry Leader, Ariane Bucaille. “As we define the roadmap for Generative AI, we must navigate many challenges. By embracing trust, inclusivity, and sustainability, we can ensure that technological advancements positively impact not only the current generation but also businesses, consumers, and broader communities for generations to come.”

GENAI EXPECTED TO DOUBLE DATA CENTER ENERGY USAGE

Deloitte predicts that global data center electricity consumption could roughly double to 1,065 terawatt-hour (TWh) by 2030—or 4% of total global energy consumption, as power-intensive GenAI training and inference continue to grow faster than other uses and applications.

Tech companies—including cloud providers, semiconductor companies, and data center operators—can help drive the clean energy transition and mitigate the growth in electricity usage. They may leverage substantial financial resources that their partners—innovators, renewable energy producers, and utilities—may lack. Major tech companies are actively investing in more efficient chips, innovative cooling solutions, energy-efficient designs, and carbon-free energy sources and are committed to achieving net-zero targets. While Deloitte predicts that these collaborations have the potential to mitigate the energy impact of GenAI, many associated research and development initiatives and pilot programs are expected to take years to yield tangible results and return on investment.

GENDER GAP IS CLOSING IN THE US, BUT REMAINS ON GLOBAL LEVELS

Deloitte predicts that experimentation and usage of GenAI by women will equal or exceed that of men in the US by the end of 2025. In 2023, women’s use of GenAI was just half that of men. However, over the past year, the proportion of women in the US adopting GenAI has tripled, significantly outpacing the 2.2x growth rate seen among men. Around the world, countries and regions are expected to close the adoption gap at varying rates with some achieving equal usage by men and women in 2025 and others in 2026.

“While the rapid increase in women’s adoption of GenAI is promising, eliminating gender disparities in GenAI will require focused efforts. Women in tech - who are using GenAI more than their male counterparts for everyday tasks - can be an important cohort to help drive change. Tech companies must enhance trust, reduce bias, and strive for more diverse GenAI workforces – including at the leadership level – to ensure that everyone can fully engage with and benefit from GenAI technologies. By doing so, companies can unlock greater innovation and broaden their consumer base ensuring products and services are equitable and effective globally,” said Gillian Crossan, Deloitte Global Technology Sector Leader.

25% ENTERPRISE ADOPTION EXPECTED BY 2025

Deloitte predicts that 25% of enterprises using GenAI are expected to deploy AI agents in 2025, growing to 50% by 2027. The growth of AI agents—software solutions designed to complete tasks with minimal human intervention—will be fueled by innovation from both start-ups and established industry leaders identifying new revenue opportunities.

Built on large language models, these AI agents will offer greater flexibility and a wider array of use cases compared to traditional machine learning or deep learning methods. While the ultimate aim is to achieve autonomous and dependable agents, Deloitte expects significant improvements in their capabilities in 2025 as these technologies rapidly advance, with agentic AI moving past pilots and proofs of concepts in some markets and for some applications in 2025. While early adopters will grapple with complexities and challenges, the vision is compelling enough for organizations to take proactive steps to prepare themselves now for adoption. This evolution will enable AI agents to tackle a broader range of applications, providing businesses with valuable tools to drive productivity of knowledge workers and efficiency gains in workflows of all kinds.

SMARTPHONE AND PCS PUT THE POWER OF GENAI TO TEST

As smartphone and PC manufacturers aim to reignite consumer excitement, Deloitte forecasts that in 2025 GenAI-enabled smartphones will exceed 30% of total shipments. PCs with local GenAI processing capabilities will be around 50% of total shipments, rising from 30% in 2024.

2025 is a pivotal year to evaluate the value and comprehensiveness of early GenAI functionalities. Although Deloitte predicts a 7% increase in global smartphone shipments (up from 5% in 2024) in 2025, the revenue impact is higher than the volume impact as consumers buy higher-priced premium smartphones equipped with advanced GenAI features. But time will tell how quickly users adopt the innovative features that providers are hoping to drive sales.

FATIGUE AND COST FUEL RISE OF AGGREGATED STREAMING PLATFORMS

After peaking at around four subscriptions per consumer in the US and over two in most European markets in 2024, Deloitte predicts that SVOD stacking—the trend of subscribing to multiple standalone video-on-demand services—has reached its limit and will start declining in 2025. While standalone subscriptions are expected to decline, SVOD revenues may still rise as providers implement price hikes, tighten password-sharing policies, and enhance bundling options.

Deloitte forecasts that the market will stabilize with just two or three standalone direct to consumer SVOD players per market, complemented by aggregators. Echoing the traditional model of pay TV providers, Deloitte forecasts a resurgence of aggregation, where intermediaries—like telcos, pay TV platforms, and tech platforms—will consolidate multiple content sources into single offerings. This shift may reduce costs and create a more sustainable streaming ecosystem.

"This shift from a promising, user-centric model to a complex, fragmented experience has created a call for a return to aggregation, echoing the simplicity and accessibility that initially drove the streaming revolution,” explained Kevin Westcott, Deloitte Global Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment (TM&E) Sector Leader. “We now expect to see a new era of streaming, one that prioritizes user experience and innovation. The future of AI-powered streaming lies in platforms that can anticipate individual preferences, deliver tailored content, and blur the lines between traditional viewing and interactive experiences."

TELECOM CONSOLIDATION RESHAPES GLOBAL MARKETS

Deloitte predicts that there will be an increased pace of wireless telecom consolidation, especially in Europe, beginning in 2025 and continuing on, creating a more viable and sustainable wireless ecosystem, especially in smaller markets.

While Deloitte forecasts that the overall number of M&A deals will remain steady at about 400, the focus will shift towards market-level consolidation, with smaller telecom companies targeted by larger players. Since 2020, 13 telecom mergers have been approved or are under consideration, including six in the Americas, five in Asia-Pacific, and two in Europe.