The total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in Hong Kong is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8% over the forecast period 2024-2029, led by the growth in mobile data and fixed broadband service segments, according to GlobalData. The report revealed that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2024 and 2029, due to consumer shift towards OTT communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU.
Mobile data revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 3.4% over the same period, driven by the growth in mobile internet subscriptions and an increase in mobile data average revenue per user (ARPU) with the projected rise in adoption of 5G services over the forecast period.
Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, said: “4G services accounted for the largest share of mobile services market, in terms of subscriptions, in 2024. However, its share will decline over the forecast period, due to the continued migration of subscribers to 5G services.”
The growth in 5G subscriptions will be driven by the growing consumer demand for high-speed wireless network connectivity, wider availability of 5G services on the back of operators’ 5G network expansion and modernization initiatives, and telcos’ promotional 5G plans and devices with greater data volumes for data-hungry applications like video streaming and social media content. In addition, the awarding of 300 MHz spectrum in the 6/7 GHz band by the country’s telecom regulator, The Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA), for public mobile services in November 2024, will aid the further deployment 5G network, boost 5G adoption, and enable telcos explore new 5G use cases.
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to the losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 3.3% over 2024-2029 period, driven by the steady growth in fiber broadband subscriptions.
Zeeshan added: “The growing demand for higher-speed broadband connectivity, efforts by the government and telcos to upgrade and expand fiber broadband infrastructure in the country, and promotional offers and discounted fiber service plans offered by operators such as SmarTone and 3 Hong Kong will support the growth in fiber broadband subscriptions over the forecast period. For instance, in May 2023, the OFCA extended its subsidy schemes for fixed network operators (FNOs) to support the deployment of fiber-optic networks in remote and underserved areas. Out of the planned 235 villages across nine districts in New Territories and on outlying islands, FNOs completed the fiber-optic network roll out in 176 villages as of November 2024 and plan to expand the network to the remaining villages by 2026.”
Pay-TV services revenue in the country will decline over the forecast period, due to the growing user preference for OTT-based video services and declining aggregate pay-TV ARPU over the forecast period.
Zeeshan concluded: “China Mobile Hong Kong (CMHK) led the mobile services market in Hong Kong. The operator will stand to gain from its strong focus on 5G network expansion and modernization efforts, enabling it to provide better quality and seamless network experience to subscribers. In the fixed communications market, PCCW will lead the fixed broadband segments through to 2029, thanks to its growing share in the FTTH/B service segment on the back of its fiber network expansions.”
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