Although the longer term impact remains uncertain, SVOD services around the world are set to see a 5% uptick in subscriber numbers by the end of the year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Strategy Analytics’ new report, titled “Global SVOD Forecast by Service (2010 - 2025)”.
The research firm had to adjust its forecast due to the huge number of people around the world who had to stay indoors because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and has now concluded that SVOD services will have 949 million paid users by the end of 2020, an increase of 47 million from pre-coronavirus forecasts.
The report goes on to predict that paid SVOD subscriptions will grow by 621 million between 2019 and 2025, to reach 1.43 billion.
“In the near term, the coronavirus will actually boost SVOD subscriptions, as well as viewing of these services, as an ever growing number of consumers adopt social distancing or are forced into quarantine,” said Michael Goodman, Director of TV and Media Strategies at Strategy Analytics.
“In the mid-to-long term much depends on the length of the pandemic and resulting economic damage. As businesses shut down and individuals are laid off consumers are going to have to make hard decisions about how they spend their money. As wonderful as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+ and other SVOD services may be, they are not essential services,” he added.
China and the United States currently make up 65% of SVOD subscribers, but the firm expects these to approach market saturation along with growth in markets like Southeast Asia. As a result, the market share of the two countries will dip to 55% in 2025.
China will remain the largest market by 2025, with a projected 438 million subscribers, up from 131 million in 2019. The United States will take second place with 342 million subscriptions, up from a 2019-end total of 125 million.
“With nearly three-quarters of US TV households subscribing to one or more SVOD service, the US SVOD market is becoming saturated. But with US SVOD households continuing to add additional services such as CBS All Access, Disney+, and the soon-to-launch HBO Max the total number of SVOD subscriptions in the US will continue to grow,” Goodman concluded.
In the near term, the coronavirus will actually boost SVOD subscriptions, as well as viewing of these services” Michael Goodman Director of TV and Media Strategies at Strategy Analytics