Point Topic released and update of its forecasts of fixed broadband take-up for 123 markets to the end of 2030, based on quarterly fixed broadband subscriber data up to Q2 2024 including both residential and business connections. This new analyisis shows that by the end of 2030 there will be more than 1.614 billion fixed broadband subscribers across the globe. This is a slight drop from 1.618 billion they predicted in their forecast published 12 months ago. Between mid-2024 and end-2030, global fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 10.2% (compared to their prediction of 14.9% a year ago). Whether it’s challenging economic conditions, regional conflicts or network deployment challenges and competition from 5G, there is a general trend of the growth slowing down.
The highest growth in fixed broadband subscribers (29.6%) will come from the Emerging markets, where broadband services were introduced earlier than in the Youthful markets but there is still plenty of room to increase take-up. A number of countries in the Emerging category have been expanding fixed broadband infrastructure, especially focusing on fibre (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and the Philippines, to name just a few). The demand for ultrafast broadband has been increasing at healthy rates in these generally large and growing populations and economies.
Youthful countries will see the second highest growth rate at 6.5%. Here fixed broadband take-up has already grown at high speed and so they will see growth rates slow down. To date, the growth curve of Youthful markets has been the steepest, with the likes of China having invested heavily in their broadband infrastructure over the last decade.
The growth in mature countries will be the slowest (5.3%) as fixed broadband penetration there is already high and the population growth is slowing down or turning negative. In fact, we forecast that the total fixed broadband subscriber figure in the Emerging markets will almost match that in Mature markets by the end of the decade.
At the regional level, the advanced, mature economies of Western Europe will see the slowest growth, at 4.2%. The rest of Europe, North America and South and East Asia will also see moderate growth in single figures. In the latter, significant growth in the likes of India, Indonesia, Thailand and Nepal, for example, will be counterbalanced by the growth slowing down to a great extent in the huge market of China, along with Hong Kong and Taiwan. On the other hand, fixed broadband take-up in the Middle East & Africa and in Latin America will grow at significant rates (36.9% and 21.5% respectively). In these mainly Youthful and Emerging markets the potential for growth is high.
In terms of the actual figures, South and East Asia will continue to have by far the highest number of fixed broadband subscribers by the end of 2030, at 732 million. China will remain the largest market in the region, although the growth there will slow down significantly and turn negative by 2030, given the already high household penetration. Western Europe will follow in the second place with 182 million fixed broadband subscribers forecast by 2030. Despite the highest predicted growth, Middle East and Africa will remain the second smallest fixed broadband market with 97.3 million subscribers. However, this figure is only slightly higher than that forecast for Eastern Europe (96.6 million), not least due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The global fixed broadband market is expanding, though at a slightly slower rate than previously forecasted, with an overall decrease of 0.3% in subscriber growth projections for 2030. Key markets such as the Philippines, Thailand, Colombia, and Russia have experienced lower-than-expected adoption rates, moderating the global outlook. Despite this, developing economies with lower market saturation continue to present growth potential, particularly in the Global South, where broadband penetration is expected to rise significantly. Mature markets such as Hong Kong, Finland, and Germany, however, are experiencing stagnation due to already high penetration levels, while some emerging markets in Eastern Europe are reaching saturation. Geopolitical and economic challenges in certain regions, such as Venezuela, also impact broadband expansion, though resilience and recovery efforts, as seen in Ukraine, highlight the continued prioritization of connectivity.
The increasing availability of broadband has far-reaching implications, fostering economic development, expanding access to education, and improving healthcare through telemedicine. It is enabling small businesses in developing nations to reach broader markets and students in remote regions to access world-class education. However, challenges remain, including the digital divide, cybersecurity risks, and the responsible use of technology. Addressing these issues requires strategic investments in infrastructure, digital literacy programs, and policies that promote safe and equitable internet access. Furthermore, broadband expansion is shifting global power dynamics, with emerging markets gaining economic strength and influence in international affairs. As these regions develop their digital economies, they present new opportunities for innovation, startups, and tailored technological solutions that cater to previously underserved populations.
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