The NFL and other major sports events are having a major impact on the subscription numbers of streaming services. In a recent webinar by Ampere Analysis, Ben McMurray, revealed how these sports events shape consumer behavior and drive the business strategies of streaming giants.
NFL'S UNQUESTIONABLE DOMINANCE
It’s no secret that the NFL is a powerhouse in the American sports landscape, and McMurray's data made it crystal clear. "The NFL dominates the sports landscape. According to Ampere's Q4 2024 sports consumer survey, it's enjoyed by more than half of all sports fans in the US and 22% say that it's their favorite competition," he explained.
Not only does the NFL capture the attention of millions of fans, but it also turns those fans into paying subscribers—a rare feat in the streaming world. "More than a third of all sports fans in the US are not just fans of the NFL but also express a willingness to pay for the competition," Murray added. This unmatched popularity and willingness to pay make the NFL a golden goose for media companies vying for sports rights.
MEDIA RIGHTS: A BILLION-DOLLAR GAME
The financial stakes of broadcasting the NFL are staggering. In 2024, the NFL generated over $12 billion in media rights revenue, dwarfing other sports competitions. "The NFL reportedly brought in over 12 billion dollars in media rights revenue in 2024, more than four times the next most valuable competition," commented Murray.
This level of revenue has prompted a major shift from traditional broadcasters to digital platforms, with streaming giants like Amazon Prime Video and YouTube TV making substantial investments in securing rights. "Streaming services such as Amazon Prime Video and YouTube TV have for the first time secured significant rights, highlighting the accelerating shift towards digital platforms."
SEASONAL SUBSCRIPTION TRENDS AND RETENTION
The start of the NFL season marks a significant bump in subscription numbers, especially for platforms like ESPN Plus. The service's subscriber activity shows a marked pattern tied to the NFL season. "On average, subscriptions across the September to February on-season periods are 71% higher than during the March to August off-seasons," highlighted McMurray.
More notably, ESPN Plus has excelled in retaining these subscribers throughout the football season. "By the end of February, just 34% had churned on average, meaning that roughly two-thirds of these subscribers remained throughout the full NFL season," added McMurray, demonstrating the loyalty of NFL fans and the power of seasonal sports in retaining subscribers.
PEACOCK'S PLAYOFF SUCCESS STORY
One of the biggest surprises revealed was the impact of an exclusive NFL playoff game on Peacock. "The exclusive playoff game resulted in 4.4% growth in Peacock subscriptions, the highest in the history of the service besides launch." This equates to approximately 1.5 million signups in a single day and 2.5 million across the weekend. Even more impressive was the retention of these subscribers, with a majority staying well beyond the NFL season.
"Among those who subscribed to Peacock on the weekend of the playoff game, 19% churned after the first month, meaning that a solid 81% stayed on for a second month," shared McMurray. Peacock's ability to hold onto these subscribers highlights the value of strategic exclusivity for streaming platforms.
THE POWER OF THE SUPER BOWL
No event has a bigger impact on subscriptions than the Super Bowl. For Paramount Plus, the service saw surge in signups, bringing in 2.3 million on Super Bowl Day 2024. However, retaining those subscribers proved challenging. Within a month, 39% of these new subscribers had churned, and by the second month, more than half had cancelled their subscriptions. "By 250 days post-Super Bowl, 74% of these subscribers had churned, leaving just over a quarter still subscribed by the start of the following season," commented McMurray.
YOUTUBE TV'S STRATEGIC BET WITH SUNDAY TICKET
YouTube TV’s purchase of the Sunday ticket rights marked a significant investment in attracting NFL fans. While the acquisition boosted sign-up rate by 76%, it didn't quite match the extraordinary impact of the Super Bowl. This demonstrates that while regular season games drive sustained interest, marquee events like the Super Bowl remain unparalleled in attracting viewers. Retention for YouTube TV signups in September, tied to the NFL season, showed that 44% churned within a month, and less than a quarter remained by October of the following year.
AMAZON'S UNIQUE STRATEGY: E-COMMERCE AND STREAMING
Amazon’s approach to NFL content reflects the company’s broader strategy of blending e-commerce with streaming. While NFL content did impact subscriber numbers, the real drivers for Amazon were its big retail events. On this topic, McMurray said: "Unlike other services carrying the NFL, the increase in signups to Amazon during the season are far less pronounced, with major subscription drivers being Prime Day deals and Black Friday."
Amazon's strategy hinges on the appeal of its all-in-one Prime membership. This approach suggests that Amazon's value proposition is unique, combining sports content with other perks like free delivery to keep its subscriber base loyal. "Churn for Amazon's Black Friday subscribers was only just over a quarter by the end of February, and still just 39% by the end of October," concluded McMurray.
Sports, particularly the NFL, remain a cornerstone of the streaming wars, dictating the ebb and flow of subscriber numbers with every touchdown and game-winning play. As McMurray concluded, the NFL is the linchpin for any service looking to establish a strong foothold in the highly competitive streaming market.
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