9 DEC 2024

Global streaming subs to break 2 billion by 2029

New forecast by Ampere Analysis possitions tackling password sharing, ad tiers and international growth to help generate almost $0.2 trillion in 2029 from paid subs and ads.

9 DEC 2024

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Currently, paid subscriptions total 1.8 billion worldwide. According to Ampere Analysis, this figure is expected to exceed 2 billion within the next five years, a significant milestone coming less than a decade after global subscriptions first surpassed 1 billion during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic-era stay-at-home mandates drove an unprecedented surge in streaming, with 282 million new sign-ups recorded in 2020 alone.

While the rapid growth of the last five years, during which global subscriptions doubled between 2019 and 2024, is now slowing, the Asia-Pacific region is poised to play a pivotal role in future expansion. As the U.S. market reaches saturation, streamers are increasingly turning their attention to emerging markets. To accelerate growth in these less-saturated regions, they will need to invest heavily in marketing and locally tailored content. Without such efforts, surpassing the 2 billion subscription mark may take until 2029.

Financially, the subscription streaming industry is set to see revenues grow nearly three times faster than subscriber numbers, with over 30% growth projected by 2029. This focus on profitability and per-subscriber monetization underscores a strategic shift for streaming platforms. By 2029, the global market is expected to generate over $190 billion annually, with $170 billion stemming from subscriptions and an additional $22 billion from ad sales. Traditionally ad-free platforms like Netflix and Disney+ have embraced ad-tier models, reflecting an industry-wide pivot toward diversifying revenue streams.

Among the major players, Netflix continues to lead with innovative strategies aimed at solidifying its position in saturated markets. These include introducing ad-supported tiers and cracking down on password sharing. Disney+ and Max have also adopted strategic bundling to maximize their appeal. By 2029, Netflix is forecasted to maintain a commanding 29% share of the global subscription streaming market, contributing significantly to the sector's dominance as the largest segment of the global TV economy.

Maria Dunleavey, Research Manager at Ampere Analysis, said: “The global streaming market is poised to generate $190 billion annually from two billion paid subscriptions by 2029. Key strategic developments, like Netflix’s account-sharing crackdown and cheaper ad tier offer, and rivals Disney+ and Max’s aggressive approach to bundling, are driving revenue growth in saturated streaming markets. Targeting the untapped Asia Pacific region is the most promising strategy for subscriber growth. To surpass current subscriber expectations, streamers must double down on strategic investments in less saturated markets. India was Netflix’s second-largest subscriber growth market in 2024, and the company has barely scratched the surface there in terms of growth potential.”