27 JUL 2020

GLOBAL AD SPENDING FORECASTED TO DROP 9.1% IN 2020

The figure will then rise again to 5.8% and reach USD 606 billion by next year. Global advertising will account for 51% of global ad spending this year.

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Recent data gathered by Zenith indicates that global ad spending will decline by 9.1% this year to USD 572 million. The figure is then expected to rise again by 5.8% and reach USD 606 billion in 2021, further increasing to USD 636 billion for 2022.

Digital advertising will constitute 51% of global ad spending this year, an improvement from its December forecast of 49.5% it forecast. Digital ad budgets were quickly cut short as a result of the pandemic, but the outbreak also gave brands time to coordinate for some of its budgets to cover digital channels. Digital platforms allow for flexibility and the ability to optimize performance. Spending on these platforms will decrease by 2% this year. The return to traditional media is not expected, even post-covid. The digital advertising market is projected to reach 54.6% by 2022. “Paid search has been losing share of the digital ad market over the last few years as video and social channels have gained prominence,”  Jonathan Barnard, head of forecasting, Director of global intelligence for Zenith said. “But this year search has come to the forefront as a way of connecting with consumers who have new needs, and also have to find new ways of satisfying their old needs in these difficult times."

The data analyst's previous forecast a year ago the US received a spike due to its election process in November. Spending in the US is expected to drop by 7% to USD 224.5 billion this year, and later rising to USD 242.8 billion in 2021. The figures in the Asia Pacific region are projected to decline by 8%, while advertisers in Western Europe cut spend aggressively in Q2, and ad spend will shrink by 15% this year, while Central and Eastern Europe will decline 8%, Latin America by 13%, and MENA by 20%.

Out-of-home (OOH) and cinema have suffered the most from Covid-related obligated business closures. Out-of-home advertising is forecast to shrink by 25% in 2020 and cinema by 51%. Looking forward, Zenith forecasts a 16% growth for OOH and 65% growth for cinema, but neither will return to 2019 peaks by 2022.

The forecasts will fluctuate over the new few years as circumstances change. A 5%  paid search ad increase is expected, followed by 13% in 2021 and 10% in 2022. The recovery of traditional media is expected to hang on by a string. 

Television and radio, among other media forms, are expected to reach 11%, and 12% declines. Only a slight recovery is predicted, with 2% and 1% growth expected for 2021. The outbreak further accelerated the decline of print advertising as newspaper ad spend predictions will continue to shrink by 21% worldwide, while magazine ad spendings will drop by 20%. According to Zenith, newspaper and magazine advertising includes only the revenue of publishers’ advertising from printed publications. With continuing losses, no recovery is expected for either medium.

Paid search has been losing share of the digital ad market over the last few years as video and social channels have gained prominence. But this year search has come to the forefront as a way of connecting with consumers who have new needs, and also have to find new ways of satisfying their old needs in these difficult times.” Jonathan Barnard Head of Forecasting, Director of Global intelligenc, Zenith

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