Research 14 NOV 2019

HIGH PRE-RELEASE DEMAND FOR “THE CROWN” AND “DOLLFACE”

In the run up to the premieres of the third season of “The Crown” on Netflix (November 17) and the new drama series “Dollface” on Hulu (November 15), Parrot Analytics has been tracking pre-release demand of both shows.

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In the run up to the premieres of the third season of “The Crown” on Netflix (November 17) and the new drama series “Dollface” on Hulu (November 15), Parrot Analytics has been tracking pre-release demand as the two streamers battle it out for dominance in the digital originals arena.

Since 2016, the average Netflix digital original title has held a steady demand advantage over the average Hulu original, but that shifted in Q1 of this year. By Q2, Hulu originals were more in demand on average, thanks to the success of hit series such as “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Harlots,” “Castle Rock,” “Future Man,” and “I Love You, America”. Indeed, Parrot Analytics latest analysis reveals that Hulu has maintained the lead for its originals for Q3.

However, US pre-release demand for Netflix’s “The Crown” during the lead-up to season 3 is higher than ever: the series has registered 3.04 times the pre-release demand during the lead-up to season 2 and 15.35 times the demand prior to season 1 (over the same 7-day time period). Further, pre-release demand is also 13.07 times higher than the average pre-release demand for new digital originals on Netflix over the past 12 months (over the same 7-day time period).

Over at Hulu, US pre-release demand for “Dollface” is showing a promising kick-off for the series. In the past seven days, US pre-release demand for the show is up 8.91 times compared to that for “Pen15,” 3.17 times compared to “Fleabag,” and 2.16 times compared to “Dickinson” over the same period. At the same time, Apple TV+’s “Dickinson” is off to a relatively strong start-post launch.

“Our global TV demand analyses show that quarterly demand for digital originals and subscription numbers are predictive of one another. Therefore, these two services - as well as competing services coming into the mainstream - need to continue to produce attention-grabbing originals in order to grow and retain subscribers and not simply rely on libraries of content,” said Courtney Williams, Head of Partnerships at Parrot Analytics. “However, as Netflix gained subscribers over the past three years, its market demand share has dropped, leaving opportunity for new streamers to grab Netflix’s market share even if the service rebounds from recent subscriber losses”.

For this entire analysis, pre-release demand is defined as the seven-day period between the 17th and 10th day prior to the premiere.

Netflix and Hulu need to continue to produce attention-grabbing originals in order to grow and retain subscribers and not simply rely on libraries of content” Courtney Williams Head of Partnerships at Parrot Analytics

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