Will 2024 be the year YouTube leapfrogs Netflix on the big screen?

The battle for the big screen will see a changing of the guard this year as YouTube hours on TV leapfrog Netflix in the UK, EssenceMediacom predicted in its latest report. While commercial TV and the BBC will continue to dominate, with over 60% of all TV viewing, competition for the third spot is hotting up.

Barb data reveals that hours spent with YouTube on TV grew 32% last year, while Netflix hours plateaued at +0.4%. If this rate continues, the industry will see them swap places, in terms of average daily viewing, in December 2024, according to the report.

According to EssenceMediacom, there are several forces driving this ascendency. Firstly, access. The proportion of Google/Android connected TV sets will continue to grow in the UK – having added over 10% market share in three years – putting the YouTube app and recommended videos front and centre of 35% of UK homes.

Secondly, cost of living. The shadow of the current economic crisis will continue to loom large over consumers, with more viewers opting for cheaper ad-funded viewing experiences, the report forecasts. With the average cost of a VOD subscription set to be over 18% higher than a year ago, 2024 could see Netflix’s subscriber-base drop to 5% points below its 2022 peak.

Thirdly, consumption. YouTube has something for everyone. Kids love watching gaming videos, while adults enjoy a variety of shows, from how-to guides to entertainment. According to the report, it is no wonder that YouTube is bringing back the 30-second unskippable advertising spot for TV buys.

“Consumption does not necessarily equate to effectiveness, however, and just because YouTube TV screen time will grow does not mean impact will also grow. When it comes to effectiveness, channels like commercial TV and Broadcaster VOD are considerably more powerful than YouTube; +83% and +60% more, respectively, based on GroupM combined ROI benchmarks,”  said Robyn Sumner, Director at EssenceMediacom London and the author of the report.

“In addition, a large part of the growth of hours is likely to be driven by younger viewing, with the YouTube Select buy already including 'Minecraft' and 'Roblox' videos – both platforms having under-16 user profiles of 60% and 67%, respectively. Brand suitability and age gating will remain a concern,”  Sumner added.