Africa will have 15.06 million paying SVOD subscriptions by 2026, triple from the 5.11 million expected at the end of 2021, Digital TV Research forecasts. From the 10 million additions, South Africa and Nigeria will each supply 2.3 million, and these two will be the only countries with more than one million subscriptions.
Regarding platforms, Netflix will account for 51% of the region’s SVOD subscribers by end-2021, although its share will fall to 39% by 2026 (5.84 million subscribers – double from 2.61 million in 2021). On the other hand, Disney+ will start in 2022 – but only in an expected 12 countries – with 2.17 million paying subscribers forecast by 2026.
Showmax will be the third largest player, expanding from an existing base of 861.000 subscribers to 2.12 million over the forecast period, while Amazon will expand its 575.000 subscriptions to 1.93 million. At the same time, regional player MyCanal will see significant growth from 42.000 to 629.000.
“The selective launch plans from some global platforms works in favor of regional players such as Showmax and MyCanal,” commented Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research.