Before the pandemic, US TV ad sales were expected to climb 2.0% this year to $72,00 billion, a significant increase from 2019’s 2.5% year-over-year to decline to $70.59 billion. This forecast was mainly driven by assumptions in political advertising associated with the 2020 presidential election and the Summer Olympics. Now that the Olympics have been postponed until 2021 and most sports seasons were suspended, predictions have changed.
Although it’s too soon to tell, the absence of live sports could also lead to an acceleration in the decline of the traditional TV trend, particularly if consumers stop purchasing to save a few dollars during the economic downturn. "Pay-TV providers, such as cable, satellite, and telecom, have been embattled in recent years as digital video platforms have encroached upon their audiences, causing losses in pay-TV households,” said eMarketer Vice President of Forecasting Monica Peart. “In a year with additional challenges from COVID-19, pay-TV providers are likely to see more pronounced declines in pay-TV households and viewers, which will result in a further cooling effect on the TV ad spending market."
Despite the impact the outbreak has had on the industry, a spike in spending remains a possibility. Political advertising is expected to boost the numbers and life sports may return in full force in H2 2020, with some sports leagues planning to resume from where they left off rather than abandon seasons entirely. The National Football League (NFL) and the holiday season, which generally skew US ad spending toward Q3 and Q4, may contribute to the growth. Many advertisers who previously planned their spending according to the spring sports calendar will likely shift their spending to other channels. However, others will wait to spend on H2 sporting events or shift within the TV medium. If a decline in consumer spending occurs as a result of an economical crisis, additional ad spending metrics will also have to be reassessed.
Pay-TV providers, such as cable, satellite, and telecom, have been embattled in recent years as digital video platforms have encroached upon their audiences, causing losses in pay-TV households. In a year with additional challenges from COVID-19, pay-TV providers are likely to see more pronounced declines in pay-TV households and viewers, which will result in a further cooling effect on the TV ad spending market.” Monica Peart eMarketer Vice President of Forecasting
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