The television advertising landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as global linear TV ad spend is forecast to decline to $139.1 billion in 2026, marking its lowest level since 2005, reports WARC Media’s recent analysis on “What counts as TV now anyway?” The decline reflects a broader decade-long erosion: between 2014 and 2024, linear TV ad expenditure dropped by 27.5% in absolute terms, and by 50.8% when adjusted for inflation.
At the same time, connected TV (CTV) is rapidly gaining ground. WARC’s report highlights that CTV now accounts for nearly half of all video usage in the U.S., per Nielsen data. The shift is further validated by YouTube’s strong performance on TV devices—commanding a 12.8% share of viewing in the U.S.—and generating $36 billion in ad revenue, surpassing the combined ad income of the four major U.S. broadcast networks.
WARC Media’s head of content, Alex Brownsell, emphasized the implications of this change: “As consumers move seamlessly from one form of video to the next, advertisers are being challenged to reappraise how they define TV — be it a specific type of video ad format, a media owner or simply the largest screen in the home — with important implications for planning and buying, frequency management and measurement.”
The decline of linear TV and the rise of CTV present both opportunities and challenges. Ad spend growth remains heavily skewed toward the U.S., though the trend is global. Advertisers and broadcasters are being forced to rethink naming, targeting, and measurement strategies: siloed buying models and fragmented measurement capabilities risk obscuring real outcomes in the evolving TV ecosystem.
Moreover, YouTube’s surge as a TV-equivalent advertising destination heralds the growing importance of Big Tech and digital-native platforms in the TV ad marketplace. Its ambition to expand into sports and sitcom-style programming signals broader competition for viewers and ad dollars.
In this changing environment, WARC’s analysis underscores the need for standardized measurement across video platforms and the integration of retail data to demonstrate tangible campaign outcomes. As streaming, CTV, and digital media converge, the old boundaries defining television are dissolving—and with them, traditional media buying strategies must evolve to match the fluid, multiscreen reality of 2025 and beyond.
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